tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253240453436334661.post404916087428696422..comments2023-09-26T02:09:38.971-06:00Comments on Recovering Technophile: IraqAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06354910302047518783noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253240453436334661.post-48684716800791072192006-10-20T08:33:00.000-06:002006-10-20T08:33:00.000-06:00Thanks for that link. I visited it and found more ...Thanks for that link. I visited it and found more information and discussion connected to that <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/yeariniraq/">frontline production</a> in case anyone is interested.<br /><br />Someone forgot to tell this administration that "bravado intended to rally national support for the war" starts to look either naive, out of touch, or just plain stupid after 3 years of the situation consistently and obviously going "worse than we hoped."Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06354910302047518783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253240453436334661.post-81956739118502752522006-10-20T08:04:00.000-06:002006-10-20T08:04:00.000-06:00I was interested to see the PBS Frontline report o...I was interested to see the PBS Frontline report on "The Lost Year in Iraq." <br /> (http://www.pbs.org/previews/frontline-lostyeariraq/)<br /><br />Although I didn't watch it carefully, it was nice to think that some one can tell what happened and could be honest about it. It is too bad the result of war was so poorly understood to begin with. What we hear from the administration is bravado intended to rally national support for the war. Certainly reason and education would be a more intelligent approach.<br /><br />I can't help but think that "it is by the wicked that the wicked are punished;" Mormon 4:5 (Not to accuse the administration of being generally wicked.) Certainly, the ego and shortsightedness that plunge a nation into an un-thought out combative approach to international problems is wicked.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253240453436334661.post-40152539560092037852006-10-18T20:54:00.000-06:002006-10-18T20:54:00.000-06:00I agree that our predictive models will never be p...I agree that our predictive models will never be perfect and that we never know exactly how accurate they are until after the fact. There is always room for second guessing. The problem that really bugs me is that so far our first guessing does not seem to be backed up by any data.<br /><br />We need measurable objectives to the war, and then we need to apply some expertise before we make decision about how to achieve those objectives.<br /><br />So far we have vague objectives and when doubters ask "are you sure your plan will work?" the prevailing response seems to be "don't you trust us?" The response should be more along the lines of "this is why we think it will work - why do you think it will fail?"<br /><br />Being a leader is one sure way to guarantee that their are detractors, but there are lots of ways to try to show you were thinking when you made your decisions. I'd much rather have a leader who thought about their imperfect decisions beforehand than one who just made the decisions and then reacted to the results later.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06354910302047518783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253240453436334661.post-76596508738170836832006-10-18T12:20:00.000-06:002006-10-18T12:20:00.000-06:00It's questions like these that make me glad I'm no...It's questions like these that make me glad I'm not in a position of power. Like you, I'm not convinced we'll ever see real stability in Iraq, and I'd love to see an end of hostilities. But how do you calculate that kind of thing? How can we tell if our predictive models are any good? I mean, we're essentially trying to guess the future, and even after the fact it'll be hard to say whether we made the right choice.<br /><br />Whatever the choice is, I'm sure the leader who makes it will be demonized by his detractors and commended by his defenders. I think part of the problem comes from a lack of measurable objectives in the war - how do we determine when the job is done?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com